What will the world look like in 20 years? 4 scenarios by DEN

How the scenarios were created

The scenarios by DEN were created using the axes below. These axes question two important contrasts that further elaborate future scenarios. The outcome is plotted on the four quadrants.

The axes question the following two contrasts:

Coherent or fragmented society?

Technological developments can bring us closer together, but can also push us further into our own bubbles. The horizontal axis explores this contrast. Which direction it takes is also influenced by underlying structures. Discuss these factors during your scenario session as well. Think, for example, about the role of the government, changing subsidy regulations, the tendencies of our economy, and possible data and privacy legislation.

Active or passive behavior towards culture?

How does Gen Z engage with culture? Do they make their voices heard or do they conform to a centrally steered system? In other words, are they drivers of new cultural forms, or are they primarily consumers of the offerings? The vertical axis explores these possibilities. Various factors play a role here as well. Consider, for example, the place of culture in society, the degree of diversity, and how institutions can position themselves within this.

The four scenarios by DEN

Scenario 1: Coherent and active

This scenario explores a future with strong coherence and active cultural participation. Gen Z are the new program creators, acting as guides and connectors in the cultural landscape. Culture is close to the people, found on large platforms and international networks, but also in schools, neighborhoods, and community centers. Innovation is highly valued. How can you achieve a wide reach even with low budgets?

Scenario 2: Fragmented and active

In this scenario, Gen Z remains active, but society is fragmented. The audience exists in bubbles, both online and offline. There is little overlap between generations, social groups, and regions; everyone follows their own path. Younger generations want to express their identity and resist old culture. Older generations resist change and fear cultural decline. How can institutions address these diverse needs?

Scenario 3: Fragmented and passive

Gen Z positions itself as passive cultural consumers in a fragmented society. Cultural experiences are mainly local; municipalities, neighborhoods, and social sectors drive cultural offerings. While there may be a diverse range of options, there is little cross-pollination. Art and culture serve as a way to discover and create one's own identity, but do not lead to interaction. What offerings can you provide for these target groups?

Scenario 4: Coherent and passive

The final scenario shows how diversity can lead to coherence, with Gen Z passively participating in culture. In this world, culture serves as a means for connection, interaction, and cross-pollination. There is a wide variety of offerings with something for everyone, and the use of data generates prosperity. Institutions can shape their campaigns and offerings using this data, programming blockbusters, leveraging technologies, and communicating layered messages through various media. In this scenario, culture is broadly accessible; people seek connection, but younger generations are harder to reach. Does your institution have the tools, such as audience data, to engage this demographic?

Get started yourself

The scenarios above serve as a starting point or foundation; you can supplement them with your own insights and perspectives. Use the DEN guide to the audience of the future (opens in new tab). Perhaps other developments are influencing your work practices. It is valuable to consider how each development manifests in each scenario; this provides clarity and allows you to start developing a future vision for your organization.